Saturday 9/4/10 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Tom Stryker

Purdue Boilermakers +11

Notre Dame is going to be a good football team by the end of the season. New head coach Brian Kelly has done a phenomenal job getting the Fighting Irish back into good physical shape and they're starting to find confidence they never really had under former coach Charlie Weis. Unfortunately, in this battle for the coveted Shillelagh Trophy, Purdue will provide the rebuilding Irish team with a tremendous challenge. It won't be tough for the Boilermakers to find motivation for this game. If you recall, ND QB Jimmy Clausen hit TE Kyle Rudolph for a touchdown pass with 25 ticks left on the clock as the Irish escaped Ross-Ade Stadium last year with a stunning 24-21 victory. According to the history book, the Boilers are an ugly 1-13 SU in their last 14 visits to Notre Dame Stadium. That fact is noted. However, this Purdue team really started to peak as 2009 ended picking up victories in four of its last six games. One of those wins came against a Ohio State team that could very easily be one of 2010's best programs. I've got a hunch that momentum will carry over and the Boilermakers will be able to find some success against a UND team that has installed new schemes on both sides of the ball. There are technical reasons that support this investment too. Notre Dame has really struggled as a home favorite posting a weak 30-51-1 ATS record including just 4-12 ATS in this role matched up against a Big 10 foe. As a double-digit favorite, the Irish have lost their fight notching a bankroll-busting 5-13 ATS mark including just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at home in this role. On the visitor's side of the field, Purdue has found success priced as a touchdown dog (+7) or more posting a reliable 33-22 ATS mark including a perfect 7-for-7 in this role in non-conference action. The Irish have come favored 24 times against Big 10 foes dating back to 1994 and were only able to cash five winning tickets. The Boilermakers haven't forgotten about last year's near miss and they'll be out for a little payback on Saturday afternoon. Grab all the points you can here men! Take Purdue!


Matt Fargo

Northwestern Wildcats -4

Vanderbilt was going to struggle again this season but the Commodores are now further behind the eight-ball. The sudden retirement of head coach Bobby Johnson on July 14th put this team in a massive hole and coming off a 2-10 season, that is the last thing they heeded. Newly hired head coach Robbie Caldwell is no rookie but he was thrown into a very tough position and one that may not sort itself out until later in the season when his young team finds some chemistry. Northwestern is not without its own issues but the Wildcats are in far better shape. Replacing all of the playmakers on offense may seem like a problem but there has been a lot of depth added to this team by head coach Pat Fitzgerald that the cupboard is not bare. The Wildcats have been to a bowl game in each of the last two seasons only to lose both of them in overtime. The goals are the same again and in this game, they match up very well in strength against weakness on both sides of the ball. Success revolves around the play of the lines, both offensively and defensively, and Vanderbilt is short on both as it has to replace the entire offensive line as well as three of the four on the defensive front. On the other side, the Wildcats bring back their entire offensive line as well as half of the defensive line. The real strength for Northwestern on defense is its linebacking corps and while the weakness is going to be in the secondary with three new starters, that is not going to hurt in this matchup. Caldwell announced that his starting quarterback would be junior Larry Smith who started nine games last year before a hamstring ended his season. Smith completed just 46.7 percent of his passes last season while throwing for only four touchdowns and tossing seven interceptions. The Commodores hope to have running back Warren Norman, the SEC Freshman of the Year, playing despite having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee last week. Even if he goes, he is not 100 percent. For the Wildcats, Dan Persa saw limited action at quarterback last season but was pretty solid in the time he saw. Saturday may be his first start, but Persa is no novice to Northwestern's spread attack. He played most of the second and third quarters of the Wildcats upset of then-No. 4 Iowa last season and threw the go-ahead touchdown pass. He ran for 67 yards on 17 attempts against Iowa and he will be a duel threat. A balanced offense will be on display. On a roster with 55 freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomore players, it is safe to say this is going to be a rebuilding season for Vanderbilt. On the flip side, expectations are high once again for Northwestern. The Commodores fall into a solid negative situation as well. Play against teams in the first week of the season that finished the previous year with four or more consecutive losses and overall had a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Northwestern Wildcats


Black Widow

1* on Oklahoma State -15.5

The Washington State Cougars have been one of the worst teams in college football for each of the past two seasons. Sure, Oklahoma State loses some talent this offseason, but they have enough left in the cupboard to crush Washington State at home Saturday. The Cowboys do bring back two of their top playmakers in jitterbug RB Kendall Hunter and WR Hubert Anyiam, who became the team's go-to receiver last year with Dez Bryant suspended. Bill Young was brought over to coach up the defense last season, and OSU made a huge jump from 93rd in total defense in 2008 to 31st in total defense last year. WSU went 1-11 last year, averaging 12.0 points/game and giving up 38.5 points/game while getting outscored by 26.5 points/game. Head coach Paul Wulff is now 3-22 in his two years here. The Cougars went 0-7 on the road last year, getting outscored by 30.6 points/game. Take Oklahoma State and lay the points.


Bryan Leonard

Washington State +16½

Make no bones about it this Washington State team has been horrendous the past two seasons posting a 3-22 record. They were 9-15 ATS and the linesmaker knows he has to increase the tariff in order to get action on the Cougars. That said, this is the third year of Paul Wulff's system and there is a light at the end of the tunnel. There are 15 returning starters including the quarterback and the line play is really improving. For those that follow football closely you are well aware that the game is won and lost in the trenches and this team is getting better and better on the lines. In fact, the defensive line has been the strength of the team in camp.

While we like the improvement of the Cougars the real reason we look to take the underdog here is that Oklahoma State lost a ton of talent in the offseason. They return just eight starters and 11 players will be making their very first starts of their college careers. As many as 10 true freshmen could see action Saturday for the Cowboys. In addition to the huge graduation losses Oklahoma State has lost three defensive players in the two deep to season ending injuries. They have also lost three middle linebackers for the season. After improving from 28.1 ppg allowed in 2008 to 21.7 ppg permitted last season we expect a huge jump in points allowed this year. The Cowboys were a combined 18-8 the last two seasons but you can argue that no other team in the country can match the Cowboy losses.

With so many new faces on the roster it's virtually impossible for head coach Mike Gundy to have his team hitting on all cylinders this early in the season. Last year the Cowboys were double digit favorites four times posting a 1-3 spread record, the only spread win was against non-FBS squad Grambling State. Not only did the Cowboys struggle to put away the opposition, but they lost outright hosting Houston as a 15 point favorite. In fact, against regularly lined teams Oklahoma State lost to the spread when favored by double digits by a combined 56 points! Gundy will be looking to play a lot of players in this game to get a better idea of what he has before hosting a solid Troy team next week. Does that sound like a team worthy of laying more that two touchdowns with?


Joseph D'Amico

Alabama -37

National Champion and pre-season #1, Alabama is touted as taking it all once again this season. They have QB McElroy, Heisman winner RB Ingram, and WR Jones all back. Despite having a meeting with Penn State upcoming, ‘Bama usually takes one game at a time. HC Nick Saban loves having SJ State as his first game of the year. They get to blow out a nobody and show the nation how good they are. On both sides of the ball, the Tide will devour the Spartan’s. San Jose State gave up an average of 37.0 PPG a season ago, including 62 points to Nevada and 55 to Louisiana Tech. For State, it goes from bad to worse as they lost their top WR in Avery who is ruled ineligible. The Spartan’s are 5-16 ATS their L21 overall and 0-8 ATS their L8 games played on the road. The Tide is 6-1 ATS their L7 games played in September. Alabama will crush San Jose State.


Tony Stoffo

Wisconsin -20.5

Just can't see the Badgers not winning by 30 here against this Rebels defensive unit that allowed 33 points and 460 yards a game during last years 3-8 ATS campaign. Wisconsin returns 10 starters on offense including senior quarterback Scott Tolzien who threw for 16 touchdowns and 2,700 yards completing 64% of his passes. Tolzien will definitely be helped by 3 first team all Big Ten players in Tackle Gabe Carimi, Guard John Moffitt, and running back John Clay. This offense ranked 3rd in rushing yards with 204 yards a game and I can see them wearing down this very thin UNLV front 7 that ranked 112th in the nation against the run last year. The Badgers score early and often making them the solid release in this spot tonight.


Lenny Del Genio

Utah St. at Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma

This shapes us as potentially the biggest bloodbath on Saturday?s card. There?s only a handful of games where the betting line is greater than it is here (-34 as of press), but if you?re worried about laying that many points remember that it was right on this very page two years ago where we told you to lay the big points with Florida against Hawaii and they responded with a 56-10 win over Hawaii. OU is 4-0 all-time vs. USU scoring a minimum of 49 points every game (avg MOV = 51 PPG) and led the last meeting 54-3 after three quarters. Take Oklahoma.


Teddy Covers

Kansas St. -1.5

UCLA has won five consecutive season openers, beating some pretty darn good teams in the process (Utah, Tennessee and Stanford, to name three). But the Bruins won’t have it easy as they travel to Manhattan to take on Bill Snyder’s Kansas State Wildcats to open up their 2010 campaign.

Rick Neuheisel’s squad was besieged with injuries in each of the last two seasons, and so far, this year is no exception. In fact, you could make an argument that no team in all of college football has been besieged with injuries and attrition more than UCLA has since the start of fall camp.

Starting quarterback Kevin Prince has been limited since the first day of practice, suffering from a slightly torn back muscle. There are legitimate concerns about Prince’s ability to shake off the rust, and throw tight, accurate passes against a live defense, without the full complement of practice time in recent weeks. And with UCLA looking to incorporate elements of the ‘Pistol’ offense in 2010 (called the ‘Revolver’ in UCLA terminology), Prince’s lack of practice time isn’t going to help their offensive efficiency here.

Prince’s injury is just the tip of the iceberg for the Bruins, with significant injury concerns on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Bruins will be missing Xavier Su’a Filo (mission), Jeff Baca (academics), Nik Abele (neck) and Kai Maiava (ankle). Tackle Mike Harris has been suspended for the opener and Stanley Hasiek flunked out of school. Eddie Williams has missed a bunch of practice time with concussion issues, although he is expected to suit up.

The injuries and attrition don’t end there. Star DE Datone Jones – their only returning starter on the defensive line – broke his foot in practice. That’s bad news against a Kansas State offense that averaged 179 yards per game on the ground last year and returns star running back Daniel Thomas for his senior year.

Last year, when UCLA beat Kansas State 23-9 in Bill Snyder’s first test against a BCS opponent, star kicker Kai Forbath was the hero, nailing three long field goals. The 2009 Lou Groza Award winner (best kicker in college), Forbath has been unable to practice with a groin injury and may not be able to suit up here either.

Kansas State senior QB Carson Coffman won the starting job in camp, but his gameplay last year left much to be desired. The Wildcats suffered major graduation losses to their receiving corps as well – expect plenty of hand-offs to Thomas here. K-State went 5-1 at home last year (only loss to Missouri), and they have the capacity to get past this depleted UCLA roster on Saturday. 2* Take Kansas State (#172).


JR O'Donnell
REDZONE SPORTS

Texas -29.5

"Jr O" is not afraid to "Lay the Wood" Week 1 as Texas - 29.5 will take the Rice Owls behind the woodshed and pound as "Jr O" never lays that many points except when a blow out is in the making!! Rice checks in off a 2-10 campaign last year. The Longhorns have pounded the Owls by an average of 33 points and in the past 10 seasons have a 307 yd edge, that tells the tale. The Owls are a + 37 point dog by our exclusive "Jr O" power rating and the Longhorns will not let up in Week 1. The public will run up the line on the Horns, but the public is right here this week. Texas did lose a lot of weapons, but boys they JUST RELOAD! The Rice Owls will be stopped early and often by the Horns D, Our #5 rated D in the country !!


Steve Zukiel

Connecticut +3

I believe Michigan Head Coach Rich Rodriquez is starting the year on the hot seat and it might get just a little hotter in Week 1 if they get upset by this Connecticut Huskie squad and I certainly believe it can happen.

Connecticut will deliver a strong dose of running back Jordan Todman and try to establish him early in the game. The Michigan run defense has struggled in the past and will have trouble trying to contain Todman.

Coach Rodriguez is still behind in his preparation for this game as he has yet to name a starting quarterback at the time of this writeup, and that, coupled with still not naming a starting tailback and that spells trouble. The Huskies have been money makers for football bettors as they are a mind blowing 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games, including 7-0 ATS in the last seven games as an underdog, winning three of those outright.

Michigan is going in the opposite direction and has burned bettors by going 6-17 against the number in the last 23 Saturday games. This could be the beginning of the end for Rodriquez as the head man at Michigan.
 

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is this northcoast?

cpaw, is this northcoast?


4* Oklahoma

3* TCU
3* Michigan

2* Fresno
2* Troy
2* Nebraska

Underdog Play

Maryland[/QUOTE]
 

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cpaw, is this northcoast?


4* Oklahoma

3* TCU
3* Michigan

2* Fresno
2* Troy
2* Nebraska

Underdog Play

Maryland
[/QUOTE]
Those are correct for the PowerSweep plays-the Late Phone Plays aren't released until around 11:00 or so on Saturday.
 

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??

RAS

1 Unit Oklahoma St. -14.5

1 Unit Washington St./Oklahoma St. Over 49

1 Unit Fresno St. PK

**Did you buy about 5 points in these plays, or is this some sort of teaser??


The lines usually move that much after games are released, no this is not a teaser. cpaw
 

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK (5* is Highest)

5* TCU by 24 (Seems like a very common theme today)
4* Fresno by 11
3* Tulsa by 17

UPSET: WASHINGTON over BYU

so is TCU his GOY pick? he has it on pregame just wondering if its the same plays....
 

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axiumsports.com

September 4th 2010

*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*

Current Bankroll=$1,293.70

Pick #16-NCAAF-
16)Bet 16.69 to win 15.45 on Miami Ohio/Florida UNDER 54.5 -108

Pick #17-NCAAF-
17a)Bet 16.89 to win 15.93 on Texas/Rice UNDER 56 -106

17b)Bet 35.05 to win 33.07 on Texas/Rice UNDER 56 -106

Pick #18-NCAAF-
18aa)Bet 17.09 to win 16.28 on Washington +1 OVER BYU -105
18ab)Bet 35.47 to win 33.78 on Washington +1 OVER BYU -105

18ba)Bet 16.90 to win 16.10 on Washington +1 OVER BYU -105
18bb)Bet 73.61 to win 70.10 on Washington +1 OVER BYU -105
 

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question on a site that sent me a email

i got a email from a website called the all star sports service and the write up is they are the number handicappers the last 2 years running. My question is has anybody used them and are they any good i know writes up are for sales of course.
any help would be great thanks.
http://www.stopandwinsports.com/ this is what was sent to me thanks
 

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Moderator.....why can't I post goodfella?


goodfella is one of the 12 services from pregame we can't post. sorry- cpaw
 

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i just posted Northcoast small college and totals and they are now gone. why?


I did not touch your post, NC is allowed and wouldn't be removed. thx cpaw
 

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Hey CPAW just wanted to say thank you and BOL to you and all the rxforum member is this new football season
if anyone sees any dwayne bryant it would be greatly appreciated
 

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